The 2012 free agent running back class is very deep. Unfortunately for many of the players in this class, running back is a position that is being devalued by NFL teams more and more every year. It certainly doesn’t help that the three running backs who signed enormous contracts prior to the 2011 season (DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson) all finished the year on a low note and all failed to help their teams qualify for the playoffs. The NFL is now a passing league and running backs are far less important to a team’s success than they once were.
Many of the top free agents in this year’s crop are good candidates for the franchise tag. The tag makes a lot of sense for teams to use on a running back, as it keeps a player running hard and hungry, and it allows a team the chance to take a close look at whether a player’s skills will degrade as he ages. As we have seen, the lifespan for running backs is very short. Cheap, effective replacements are easy to find in the draft. As such, teams do whatever they can to avoid giving their star running back a long-term contract extension and, frankly, this appears to be good strategy.
2012 Free Agent Running Backs
Arian Foster
Foster is only a restricted free agent, which means that others teams can offer him a contract, but the Texans have the right to match any contract offer that he receives. If the Texans chose not to match, they would receive a first round pick in return.
Prediction: The Texans are close to the cap and will likely have to allow one of their two prized free agents (the other being defensive end Mario Williams) follow the money to a new team. Don’t expect that player to be Foster. He is simply too important to the Texans’ offense. Foster will likely be tagged and then the Texans will begin negotiations with his agent regarding a long-term deal. Under the previous CBA, it made little sense to franchise a restricted free agent, but the new CBA makes this possibility far more likely. Applying the franchise tag to Foster will shield the Texans from having to match a front-loaded contract that another franchise could offer to him as a means of forcing the Texans into cap hell.
Ray Rice
Rice is not going anywhere.
Prediction: Expect Rice to be tagged as a means of buying time while he and the Ravens work out a contract extension. Rice has indicated that he is fine with this arrangement and will not hold out of training camp if tagged. Both sides should have little difficulty agreeing on a fair deal that benefits both the team and the player.
Matt Forte
The Bears understand how vital Matt Forte is to their success on offense. The team has very few play-makers other than Forte and they are not about to let him walk. He overcame an MCL injury last season to play in the Pro Bowl, so there are no lingering concerns about his health going forward.
Prediction: Forte may have to play under the franchise tag in 2012, but he should eventually get a new contract from the Bears.
Marshawn Lynch
Lynch has under-performed for the majority of his NFL career, with the exception of a stretch at the end of last season when he was the hottest running back in the NFL. Interestingly, that stretch just happened to coincide with the end of his contract.
Prediction: Expect the Seahawks to apply the franchise tag to Lynch and force him to play out the 2012 season, and continue to produce at a high level, before they seriously contemplate locking him up long-term. He hasn’t earned a big paycheck just yet.
Michael Bush
The Raiders will have to tie up a lot of money at the running back position to keep Bush (they are already paying Darren McFadden a lot in 2012), but it’s hard to imagine the team letting him walk away.
Prediction: Bush will get a new deal from the Raiders that pays him like a starter (probably in the range of $8 million per year) and he will continue to fill the role of sometimes short-yardage specialist, sometimes workhorse starter (whenever Darren McFadden is hurt–which is often).
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Many have speculated that Green-Ellis would remain with the Patriots, a team that seems to know how to get the most from his fairly limited talents. However, the Pats may decide that they have to move forward with their two sophomore running backs (Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley).
Prediction: Don’t rule out the Chiefs making an offer to Green-Ellis if he moves on from New England. Thomas Jones will not be back in Kansas City and the Chiefs will need to add a running back to take the pressure off of Jamaal Charles, who will be returning from a torn ACL. Green-Ellis is one of the most effective short-yardage backs in the league and he could serve as an excellent complement for Charles.
Mike Tolbert
Finally, we come to a free agent running back who is likely to change teams this off-season. The Chargers have more important free agents to re-sign, such as wide receiver Vincent Jackson and left tackle Jared Gaither, so Tolbert will likely test the waters elsewhere.
Prediction: Tolbert could be a good fit in Tampa Bay, forming a powerful one-two punch with LeGarrette Blount, or perhaps in Kansas City, where he would provide the “smash” to Jamaal Charles’ “dash.”
Peyton Hillis
The Madden 12 cover boy fell victim to the curse–or did he? Perhaps the far more likely explanation for Hillis’ sub-par 2011 season is that he was never very good to begin with and the only reason he graced the cover of the game was that he won a voting competition in which many fans tried to prevent their prevent their team’s superstar from winning.
Prediction: Mid-way through the season, it seemed like a lock that Hillis would move on from Cleveland after his contract expired. The latest rumor is that he is back in the Browns’ good books and it seems likely he will re-sign with the team. Expect the contract to be incentive-laden.
Cedric Benson
Benson is the best candidate to become the free agent running back who generates no buzz and never really gets back into the league (think along the lines of Clinton Portis, Willie Parker, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander for recent examples).
Prediction: It’s possible the Bengals would consider bringing him back if they miss out on a player like Michael Bush or Mike Tolbert, but it’s just as likely that Benson will have to wait until a running back in hurt during training camp before he gets a chance to get back into the league.
Follow PigskinBuzz!